Best weekly rally- a boon ??

The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.

The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15^th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.

In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.

Budget-2011-12- YES____But????....

The Pranab’s budget is same as earlier to focus on demand and propel growth. Te rural demand and in house economy building is good but the corporate houses are to be taken care as well.

The Soaps and Agarbatti companies share lots of fragrance of success.

The GST will lure all but the waiting is more painful to FMGC companies.

The cold chain and the chain action of profit growth is assured to those companies but the rise of copper may put some pressure.

The ready made branded garments put some 10% higher “pride cost” of buying but the quality was at yesterdays, level.

The low cost housing below 25 lakhs is the next mantra but the rise in the cement prices hampers the construction growth. The mall growth and SEZ growth get hampered and a severe blow to high rise illuminated luxury shopping. The IT and ITes are at foul cry with the introduction of MAT to SEZ. The big brother Reliance joins the group to provide chorus.

A severe blow to SESAGOA and others involved in miming of iron ore exports. The local sourcing of quality iron is at cheaper and easier than earlier.

The MAT was raised from 18-18.5% but the Corporate surcharge was reduced from 7.5% to 5%.

The good is the automobiles were spared from rise in excise duty.

A cool heath and rise in hospital bill and including Insurance tax is like filling the coffer with smile and sending the coffin.

The automobile is vrooming, banking sector in neutral, cement is cool, diamonds and jewelry lost the shining, IT is totally down, construction ok but infra is good with rising costs but power sector is good, steel is good, the FMCG is with fragrance,  phama needs a dose of pill but the corporate hospital and the AC hotels that serve a cool beer needs to pay the service tax. Those who want to fly shall pay more and their branded garment costs a lot. The oil and exploration is in demand with energy so is the power sector. Enjoy the budget but not the markets????????.

So sail with world markets and down with our weight unless or MF attract large capital INFLOW.

The story is no different…..

The markets opened low but the U spirits has news that propelled to touch 608 high and low 570 I wrote as 570/609. I would have in long position but the system I regularly used was formatted and it struck with –win32 problem which disconnects the net. This trouble forced me to close and shift to other system. The other is get restart frequently causing disruption.

The Rel infra low cut was identified but with fear I covered 125 stocks for no loss no profit at 444.80 level fell upto 437 level. I could not enjoy the full benefit. The SBI kept on cutting the low but I failed to sell as well failed to sell ICICI inspite of my try to sell 500 at 267.7 and again 500 at 264.6 level. The stock fell to 258 level.

The later part I thought the market will cut the low, this time with Reliance. The idea went wrong and the market went up. The RIL crossed the high, I lost more than 100 and a 2.7 lakh volume.
The problems existed till yesterday from Jan-09 4th week from that date I have a story to tell and it kept on troubling me in one or the other way.

How far is NO-FAR….

The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at early.
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 6357
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points.
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09