The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance.The possibility ofa repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The challenge to overcome….
The worst effected challenge to cover my short of ICICI bank sold at 459 forced to cover at 460.85 level despite the market fall by more than 20 points, the loss was booked for Rs 569/-. I was terribly shaken due to this forced closure as the extra selling at higher level was restricted due to margin requirement despite of my 95000 margin. The IIFL restricted for selling of 500 shares in ICICI bank.
Later I took the opportunity to 250 ICICI sell at 472.85 levels but I advanced to 473.65 levels where I added 150 shares total cover for profit at 470.35, 470.85 and 481.85 levels. The profit was at the end was Rs 368/-. I relaxed for a bit but missed to buy DLF when Bhulakshmi came at that time. We all greeted her “Happy Birth Day”.
I made some money in SBI when I identified and shorted at 1298.65 levels and coved at 1288 level. I missed to sell ICICI but sold only 25 shares. Later no big deal was made due to fear of loosing the money made. I could stop the over trade with 960 gross profit.
I identified the Bull move in Relcap and the REL infra. The DLF crossed the 309 level I identified in the morning, wrote in my diary. I identified the up move at 283 levels I tried to buy at 291levels but confined to 5 shares instead of 250. I kept my study on and felt happy for being like that instead of taking a position.
Later I took the opportunity to 250 ICICI sell at 472.85 levels but I advanced to 473.65 levels where I added 150 shares total cover for profit at 470.35, 470.85 and 481.85 levels. The profit was at the end was Rs 368/-. I relaxed for a bit but missed to buy DLF when Bhulakshmi came at that time. We all greeted her “Happy Birth Day”.
I made some money in SBI when I identified and shorted at 1298.65 levels and coved at 1288 level. I missed to sell ICICI but sold only 25 shares. Later no big deal was made due to fear of loosing the money made. I could stop the over trade with 960 gross profit.
I identified the Bull move in Relcap and the REL infra. The DLF crossed the 309 level I identified in the morning, wrote in my diary. I identified the up move at 283 levels I tried to buy at 291levels but confined to 5 shares instead of 250. I kept my study on and felt happy for being like that instead of taking a position.
Friday, December 19, 2008
The fear of non practice….
The fear of un-acceptable level holding threatens me to wind of the position. The same thing happened when I bought 100 shares of SBI forced me to book the loss for Rs70/-, had I maintained the position then that could have yielded Rs5000/-.
In the morning the other system troubled with windows problem. This system net connectivity was not good. I missed the chance to buy and sell. When things settled, I sold 100 Rel infra but the ticker update failed forced to close. At the same time, Bhulakshmi and her mother-inlaw team came to see my father. This forced me to look for other domestic work.
Later I was bullish but doubtful of the run. I bought SBI and sold for a loss. I bought RIL for high cut but a test buy of 1 share. I was waiting for the fall made some 250 shares of ICICI selling at 451.75, covered for a rupee.
In the fag end, a typical situation happened. I wanted to buy 25 shares of ICICI at 467.75 the price even came down to 465.35 so I thought I might have received that and sold at higher level. Later when I checked the position short of 25 shares forced me to buy when the stock falling after touching 474.8, covered at 470.8. My earlier order got no number as it was not registered with the IIFL. Later another order was placed after some time then the system cancelled my earlier ICICI order. That is how I waited, wasted the day with no gains.
In the morning the other system troubled with windows problem. This system net connectivity was not good. I missed the chance to buy and sell. When things settled, I sold 100 Rel infra but the ticker update failed forced to close. At the same time, Bhulakshmi and her mother-inlaw team came to see my father. This forced me to look for other domestic work.
Later I was bullish but doubtful of the run. I bought SBI and sold for a loss. I bought RIL for high cut but a test buy of 1 share. I was waiting for the fall made some 250 shares of ICICI selling at 451.75, covered for a rupee.
In the fag end, a typical situation happened. I wanted to buy 25 shares of ICICI at 467.75 the price even came down to 465.35 so I thought I might have received that and sold at higher level. Later when I checked the position short of 25 shares forced me to buy when the stock falling after touching 474.8, covered at 470.8. My earlier order got no number as it was not registered with the IIFL. Later another order was placed after some time then the system cancelled my earlier ICICI order. That is how I waited, wasted the day with no gains.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The Rs20,000/- dream….
I have made a decent deal but the order punched took few seconds time to absorbed made me to wait. The 250 share sell at 532.5 would have made 3000 rupees easily as the steep fall from that level to 510.
I identified the selling in the RelInfra and Relcap made me to track but yielded no good result. Both the stocks fell by 15%, I took a call when Rel cap was at 526.3 and even sold 100 shares at 517.40 but covered at 516 fell to 460 level. I even sold another 30 shares at 512.3 but covered at 511. The Rel infra fell from 600.5 to 535 level but I could not sell despite my efforts to sell 100 shares at 593.3.
The single most mistakes I did was tried to sell reliance 100 shares at 1356.3 level but failed. I again tried to sell Rel cap RelInfra but failed to capitalize. I sold 250 Rel Infra at 593.3 covered at 591.8 level. Had this selling covered at the lower level would have yielded Rs 20,000/-.
The experience shows from the deals is that the trading I do confined to few seconds that to tacking advantage of the volatility. The habit of covering early and waiting for another opportunity is good but this won’t yield results. The best thing is to practice the position holding with out counting the rupee to the volatility that normally happens. The UJWAL- trading is the best solution to this problem. I will practice this trading with Target Oriented Trading (TOT).
I identified the selling in the RelInfra and Relcap made me to track but yielded no good result. Both the stocks fell by 15%, I took a call when Rel cap was at 526.3 and even sold 100 shares at 517.40 but covered at 516 fell to 460 level. I even sold another 30 shares at 512.3 but covered at 511. The Rel infra fell from 600.5 to 535 level but I could not sell despite my efforts to sell 100 shares at 593.3.
The single most mistakes I did was tried to sell reliance 100 shares at 1356.3 level but failed. I again tried to sell Rel cap RelInfra but failed to capitalize. I sold 250 Rel Infra at 593.3 covered at 591.8 level. Had this selling covered at the lower level would have yielded Rs 20,000/-.
The experience shows from the deals is that the trading I do confined to few seconds that to tacking advantage of the volatility. The habit of covering early and waiting for another opportunity is good but this won’t yield results. The best thing is to practice the position holding with out counting the rupee to the volatility that normally happens. The UJWAL- trading is the best solution to this problem. I will practice this trading with Target Oriented Trading (TOT).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
