Narendra Modi’s $87 billion river-linking project set to take off as floods hit India

After years of foot-dragging, the govt plans to begin work on an $87 billion scheme to connect nearly 60 rivers in the country as Narendra Modi bets on the project to end deadly floods, droughts

Mayank Bhardwaj

Large areas of eastern and north-eastern India are reeling under floods in which hundreds have died, while torrential rain also brought Mumbai to a standstill this week. The Tamil Nadu, in contrast, recently rationed drinking water due to drought. Photo: PTI

Daudhan: After years of foot-dragging India will begin work in around a month on an $87 billion scheme to connect some of the country’s biggest rivers, government sources say, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi bets on the ambitious project to end deadly floods and droughts.

The mammoth plan entails linking nearly 60 rivers, including the mighty Ganges, which the government hopes will cut farmers’ dependence on fickle monsoon rains by bringing millions of hectares of cultivatable land under irrigation.

In recent weeks, some parts of India and neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal have been hit by the worst monsoon floods in years, following two years of poor rainfall.

Modi has personally pushed through clearances for the first phase of the project — which would also generate thousands of megawatts of electricity — the sources say, despite opposition from environmentalists, tiger lovers and a former royal family.

That will involve construction of a dam on the Ken river, also known as the Karnavati, in north-central India and a 22-km (14-mile) canal connecting it to the shallow Betwa.

Both rivers flow through vast swathes of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh states, ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the prime minister hopes the Ken-Betwa scheme will set a template for other proposed river interlinking projects, one of the sources said.

“We have got clearances in record time, with the last round of clearances coming in only this year,” Sanjeev Balyan, the junior water resources minister, told Reuters. “The Ken-Betwa interlinking tops the priority list of the government.”

Government officials say diverting water from bounteous rivers such as the Ganges, Godavari and Mahanadi to sparse waterways by building a clutch of dams and a network of canals is the only solution to floods and droughts.

But some experts say India would be better off investing in water conservation and better farm practices. Environmentalists and wildlife enthusiasts have also warned of ecological damage.

BJP states first

The 425-km (265-mile) Ken flows through a tiger reserve nestled in a verdant valley. The government plans to clear out 6.5% of the forest reserve to build the dam, relocating nearly 2,000 families from 10 remote villages.

Around half a dozen clearances, including on environmental and forest protection, have been obtained for the scheme to link the Ken and Betwa, according to two sources and documents seen by Reuters.

Modi’s cabinet is likely to give its final go-ahead for the project within a couple of weeks, sources say, after which he will flag off construction at the site about 805 km (500 miles) from New Delhi, currently marked only by rows of red concrete slabs placed on the ground.

The government is also finishing up paperwork on projects in western India linking the Par-Tapi with the Narmada and the Daman Ganga with the Pinjal. The projects involve Modi’s home state of Gujarat and neighbouring Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai, both also ruled by the BJP.

The river-linking projects was first proposed in 2002 by the last BJP-led government. Work stalled because state governments sparred over water sharing contracts and clearances got stuck in India’s notoriously ponderous bureaucracy.

This time, officials hope starting with projects that are all in BJP-ruled states will smooth negotiations.

Modi’s government is touting the linking of rivers as a panacea to the floods and droughts that plague India every year, killing hundreds of poor people and withering crops.

Large areas of eastern and north-eastern India are reeling under floods in which hundreds have died, while torrential rain also brought the commercial capital Mumbai to a standstill this week. The southern state of Tamil Nadu, in contrast, recently rationed drinking water due to drought.

Not everyone is convinced the projects should be the priority, however.

“Theoretically we can’t find fault with the plan,” said Ashok Gulati, a farm economist who has advised governments. “But spending billions of dollars in a country which wastes more water than it produces, it makes more sense to first focus on water conservation.”

India, which has 18% of the world’s population but only 4% of the usable water resources, perversely gives incentives to produce and export thirsty crops such as rice and sugar cane.

Tigers, vultures and canyons

The proposed 77-metre high (250-ft), 2-km long dam on the Ken River will submerge 9,000 hectares of mostly forest land. A big portion will come from the Panna Tiger Reserve, near the UNESCO world heritage site of Khajuraho Temple in Madhya Pradesh.

The forest reserve, a major tourist attraction, is home to 30-35 tigers and nearly 500 vultures.

“Building a dam in a reserve forest is an invitation to a grave environmental disaster,” said Shyamendra Singh, the scion of the Maharajas who ruled a princely state near Panna during the British colonial era. “It will lead to floods in the forest and drought in the downstream.”

Authorities say they have planned for the safety of tigers and vultures.

People in Daudhan village, not very far from the Gangau dam built by the British in 1915, are ambivalent. With no access to electricity and other basic services, they want more information on what they will get in return for being displaced.

“We never got to see electricity in our village,” said village elder Munna Yadav, gesticulating towards the Ken flowing a few metres from his thatched cottage. “If our children get to move out of this area and if the dam benefits everyone, we’ll not oppose it.” Reuters

First Published: Fri, Sep 01 2017. 08 43 AM IST

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TRADING DISORDERS – STOCK MARKETS

TRADING AS A PROFESSION:

Professional experts consider "Day Trading" is an effective tool to make money on the volatility day but amateur retail investors get caught on the wrong foot due to emotional imbalance and lack of understanding of the "Game Plan" involved.

The Online Trading opened many windows of opportunities to retail investors. Many traders prefer Day trading in stock markets as a profession because of the underlying opportunity to make money is huge. The online screens exhibit the trades with rise and fall of the prices in ticker and the colors that stimulate emotions to Buy or Sell instantly to grab the opportunity. The emotional "Greed and Fear" attached to the position when built, generate anxiety and turbulence in the mind and get confused to take right decisions at the right time.

COMMON TRADING DISORDERS:

The Institutional and professional investors wait for the right time to go for shopping in stock markets whose investment research enhances better decision-making process with RIGHT perspective in STOCKS that can do well in future, improve their balance sheets at revenue front & profits part and market capitalization. The Investment decisions in stock markets considered both on Scientific research and Art part is recognizing the “TIME to INVEST”. They have the holding capacity as well loss-bearing capacity and may sometimes write off the loss and search afresh in other stocks.

RETAIL TRADER CHALLENGES:

I)Revenge Trading:

Revenge Trading is a very common practice and done to make money from that counter/scrip. The force of revenge gets generated in the mind as a consequence to the loss incurred due to hasty decisions made in the market volatility. The trader gets emotional rage to the foolish position made and a humiliating failure to enjoy profits triggers retaliation. Many losers as traders do trade with induced insults met and previous wounds stored, strike back with vengeance, also addicted to trade with vigor to prove that they are right and worthy.

The traumatic losing deals are painful and hard to digest. The failure to take right decision bug the mind, pressure build beneath the layers over a period of time. The frustrated mind call for a revenge and retaliation to cover losses from that stock triggers Revenge Trading (study the “Rouge Trader”, a true story of Nick Leeson).

The human Psychology Research Institutes state that the pre-frontal cortex the amygdala responsible for emotional reactions controls the decisions that the trader makes when encountered with an emotional reaction and also regulates the anxiety that shoots up once substantial positions are taken up.

II)Coercive Trading:

Coercive Trader with animal instincts, rule the mind and heart with EGO-centric approach become blind to accept reality, do trade with little reasoning. These traders ignore the warnings, think little on what is being done at the trading, blindly build positions and their ultimate consequences are well known to many.

Most of the times, many traders who lost their control over their positions “pray for the wish” to happen and keep on buying when the price is falling and keep on selling when the prices are rising with coercive nature and argumentative mind. Any size of position against the major trend is a drop in the ocean and simply trying to demand the ticker to do the opposite never happens, seldom prayers get respected those who ignored “The Reality”. This kind of approach even ruined Jesse Livermore (the greatest trader, read the book “ The Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”)

Emotional Compulsive Trading:

Stock trading is a dangerous game for Traders with high emotional attitude get attracted to the magic of Ticker, can become a prey to the market operators. Emotionally disturbed trader lack the situational judgmental mindset, is a Noise Trader (the term first used by Fisher Black in 1986) who is also known a Idiot Trader whose decisions to buy and sell are irrational, confusing, erratic and become a compulsive trader to keep on punching BUY or SELL, doesn’t consider the direction but involves in push and pull off the volume into the system. Needless to mention the results of these traders, may not survive in trading for a long time.

UNDERSTAND GREED AND FEAR:

Professional/seasoned traders get the gut feel, place entry and exit points with a well-defined plan in tune with markets movements. The small-time retail players make their decisions based on some advice, find difficult to deal deep-rooted greed to make instant money in the volatility and fear of further loss influence their decisions but not the rationale, end up winding the capital base. These traders get success less than 5 percent but more than 90% get addicted, continue to create problems to their accounts.

Catch a ROPE:

Result Oriented Planned Efforts-ROPE for better returns as a principle for investing, a well-thought strategy. Market participants unanimously agree that TIMING the bottoms and highs in Stock-Market, a very difficult task anybody can ever achieve. So Institutional investors find their Buying Zones and Selling Zones, instead merely focus on exact right Bottom to BUY and Right High to SELL, whereas retail investors get tempted to CATCH the opposite side for quick bucks, end up in losing wealth.

CONCLUSION: Stock trading is a big opportunity to make money. By the way, understand trading disorders, risks, traps and emotions involved to manage success in stock markets.

A planned approach helps to garner the opportunity and wealth can be created as well. 

TRADE the PRICE

THE VERY FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STOCK INVESTMENTS (for that matter any investments) ARE TO MAKE MONEY WITH SUITABLE PORTFOLIO OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. MANY RETAIL INVESTORS QUITE OFTEN FAILED TO RECOGNIZE THE BASIC RISKS INVOLVED AND ALSO IGNORE THE FUNDAMENTAL RULES TO BE STRICTLY FOLLOWED TO MAKE MORE MONEY FROM THE STOCK MARKETS.

Ace Investor Ideology:

Every Investor bestowed with equal opportunities to make lots of money from stock market investments provided think & invest like an institutional investor does. No matter how big or small money available for investments, doesn't matter whether BUY a small-cap, mid-cap or Large-cap but the approach to investments in markets makes a person rich or multi-millionaire.

Most of the stock market retail investors follow their legendary investors stock investments. It is not wrong to follow a successful investor's ideology but what matters most is the suitability to one's needs and requirements. So always understand the concepts of an Ace Investor strategy & sector allocation then develop a workable strategy that suits well but don't just follow blindly.

Who Rules...?

The Stock price action gets activated from Low to High and High to Low due to a determined tussle between BULLs & Bears that enables smooth transfer/exchange of VOLUME to acquire/offload the stock. During good times BULLs command the most, while BEARs take charge when gloominess runs but the underlying attraction point that turn tables is neither Bulls nor Bears but the PRICE. The STOCK PRICE attracts the interested parties to become BULLS or BEARS to command and enjoy the future returns. The possibility and future prospects propel the participants to decide their position and sustain their view till the PRICE reaches its realistic value.

Trade the Price:

Stock trading/investments open the doors of opportunities to many players like Day-traders, Swing traders, Positional traders, retail/small investors & Institutional investors..etc with a bouquet of investment opportunities in different companies in various sectors. The growth stocks always build their strong base during the times of bad periods/recession time and emerge as winners and find pinnacle place as tide turns their favour with a tag as most sought/favoured stocks. It is always advisable to "Trade the Price" to make more money from markets even in multi-bagger stocks once the valuations reach very high. In case the overall market take a Southward journey, these counters also deserve a trade but don't exit from the stock. This situational position sizing and building the portfolio is very important to enjoy long-term multifold returns. (Ex: Recently Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sold Delta Corp at Rs 160+ levels range and re-entered @ Rs105+)

Build Capacity to Hold:

The capacity to hold with large quantities for a reasonable period makes a big difference in enjoying the multi-bagger stocks upward journey. Many seasoned investors know that the Elliot principle plays a big role and most retail investors get out of the stock during the first leg of the up move or in the retracement levels.

Many successful investors who learned hard lessons from their experiences shared the importance of Position sizing. Their initial investment experiences are bitter to digest and some blew their accounts with an anticipation to make HUGE profits in short period, turned sour. The psychological exuberance while buying blue-chips and excitement to hold large quantities of quality stocks for multi-bagger returns encouraged them to ignore current high valuations. All the more, got trapped in LEVERAGE loop, find it hard to hold for a longer period during the downfall forced them to exit for a loss or nominal profits from that possible multibagger counters. These experiential situations are common to many investors.

MULTI-BAGGER INVESTMENT STRATEGY:

NO-DOUBT, STOCK-MARKETS ARE ONE OF THE BEST AVAILABLE AVENUES FOR INVESTMENTS TO SMALL INVESTORS TO LARGE INSTITUTIONAL PLAYERS. THE STOCK-MARKET INVESTMENTS MADE IN MULTI-BAGGER COMPANIES, MANY A TIMES REWARD INVESTORS WITH MANY FOLD RETURNS TO THOSE WHO “SPOT THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY AT THE RIGHT PRICE” AND POSITION THEIR INVESTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

• The multi-bagger companies carry a unique business model with high-end products&services and less competition "Buyer Requests & Seller Demands" mode.

Ex: 8K Miles (Rs 18 Low in 2012,Rs 2550 High in 2016)

• Once, well-established companies ran into doldrums with underutilized capacities, later get a new drive, turn-around story with better economic prospects to garner the unfolding opportunities.

Ex: INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES (Rs 5.0+ Low in 2012,Rs 1248+High in 2016)

• Management rejuvenate their entire team with positive energies to increase revenue and profitability with 20-35% QoQ growth.
• The stock hardly falls from the consolidated floor price range gained in its upward journey

Conclusion: There are many good stocks available in Indian stock markets to become multi-baggers in next 3-5 Yrs. It is very important to identify good stocks to BUY and Hold, but at right price is even more important.

HUGE DERENCE ORDERS WORTH 2.5 TRILLIONS!!

Manohar Parrikar says orders worth Rs2.5 trillion placed for modernization of defence sector

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar says defence budget is currently about 1.65% of GDP and he would like it to be 3% but it wouldn’t happen overnight

New Delhi: Defence minister Manohar Parrikar on Friday said that orders worth nearly Rs2.5 trillion have already been placed to modernize defence forces under his tenure and this figure would soon touch Rs3 trillion.

 Speaking at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, Parrikar said there was a backlog of defence orders worth Rs583,000 crore, some of them pending for over 10-12 years. 

 He said many of these are being cleared but he cannot order as per will as defence budgets are to be taken into consideration. Typically anything brought has costs spread over 5-7 years or more. 

 The military budget is currently about 1.65% of the gross domestic product and Parrikar said he would like it to be 3%, but he conceded it would not happen overnight. 

 India has become the world’s fourth largest spender on defence, following a 13.1% increase in its 2016-17 defence budget, according to US research firm IHS Inc. 

 India’s rise in the rankings from sixth position last year is a result of an increase in expenditure to $50.7 billion, combined with cuts to military spending by Russia and Saudi Arabia, where low oil prices have put considerable strain on their finances. 

 According to a report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers Pvt. Ltd, India ranks among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of its military expenditure and import of defence equipment—only 35% of defence equipment is manufactured in India, mainly by public sector units. 

  Parrikar said his target is to bring greater synergies and understanding between the armed forces and defence ministry over the next six months in matters related to procurement and what is required by the forces.

 The defence minister also said that the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir by the Indian Army had introduced a "principle of uncertainty" in the minds of the adversary and did not rule out more such strikes. 

  “The surgical strikes have introduced a degree of uncertainty... obviously, uncertainty itself creates decision-making bottlenecks. You will never know them,” the defence minister said. “It was a continuous insult to be treated like this... Someone comes, hits us and we can’t do anything.”

 Asked if India could carry out more surgical strikes, Parrikar said the “principle of uncertainty” should be allowed to operate. “It will be beneficial to all of us.” 

 On an attack in Nagrota that left seven soldiers dead on Tuesday, Parrikar said it was obvious that “some sort of lethargy” had set in over a period of time and it was “painful to see soldiers die.” 

 "We have to thing out of the box," Parrikar said on how to secure our military installations from more terrorist attacks. He said help of agencies like DRDO was being taken. DRDO has been asked to look into various kinds of high tech fencing.

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