THERMAX....MERRY CHRISTMAS

MIND BOGGLING YET…

I WAS AMAZED TO SEE THE PRICE ROCKETED TO CREATE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN ME.

I BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF THERMAX FOR Rs 38.65, 15 YEARS BACK,

TODAY, THE PRICE OF THERMAX IS Rs 1050/- OF Rs 2/- FACE VALUE (EQUAL TO Rs 5150/-). IN OTHER WORDS, ONE LAKH INVESTED HAS BECOME MORE THAN 66 LAKHS.

EVEN RECENTLY, 2-3 YEARS BACK, I FOUND MARKSAN AT Rs 2.30 NOW IT IS QUOTING Rs 64/-.

ALSO FOUND MORARJEE TEXTILES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 61, INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 390/-.

BUT THE ABOVE THREE WERE JUST MEMORIES BUT NO PARTICIPATION……

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MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND ALL INVESTORS & TRADERS…

Alstom BRIBE- Delhi Metro-₹19,895,000

Alstom unit paid €3.3 m bribe for Delhi Metro: UK’s Serious Fraud Office
VIDYA RAMLONDON, SEPTEMBER 10:  A British subsidiary of French industrial group Alstom paid €3.3 million in bribes disguised as payments for consultancy agreements to secure infrastructure contracts relating to the Delhi Metro, Britain’s Serious Fraud Office alleged in requisition papers released following a hearing in London on Tuesday.According to the charge-sheet, Alstom Network UK Ltd, a division of Alstom, and its directors “corruptly” paid ₹19,895,000 in 2001 to a company called Indo European Ventures Pte Ltd, disguised as payments relating to a Consultancy Agreement, and paid €3.13 million to Global King Technology Ltd in May 2002, under a similar guise.These were meant to be “inducements or rewards for showing favour to the Alstom Group in relation to the award or performance of a contract with the…Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd for a Train Control, Signaling and Telecommunication System” for Phase-1 of the Metro,” according to the requisition document.Charges were also brought against the company relating to contracts on tram systems in Warsaw, Poland and Tunis, Tunisia. In total, six charges have been brought against the subsidiary relating to alleged corrupt practices between June 1, 2000, and November 30, 2006, with alleged payments totalled €6.6 million. Delhi-related payments constitute over half.The charges were made public following the hearing at Westminster Magistrates Court in London. The next hearing is set to take place on October 6, though the case is unlikely to go to trial until next year. The charges follow a four-year investigation — code-named Operation Ruthenium — by the Serious Fraud Office into suspected corruption involved in overseas contracts.In 2010, the SFO arrested three UK-based members of the Alstom Board on suspicion of bribery, corruption, money laundering and false accounting, though no charges have been filed.The investigation into Alstom subsidiaries has spanned several countries across the world, with the US Department of Justice taking an active role.In July, a former senior executive of a US subsidiary of Alstom pleaded guilty to participating in a scheme to pay bribes relating to the awarding of a power project in Indonesia. The SFO itself began the investigation following information provided by Switzerland’s Office of the Attorney General.(This article was published on September 10, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/alstom-unit-paid-33-

m-bribe-for-delhi-metro-uks-serious-fraud-office/article6398107.ece?

homepage=true

DENIAL CAN CONSOLE BUT NEVER SAVES ....!!!!

Why the monsoon numbers hide reality

Because the ecology of various regions differs, it is silly to club them all under one countrywide average number

Nitin Sethi  |  New Delhi  

July 22, 2014 Last Updated at 08:10 IST

A whopping three-fourth of the country’s geographic area is right now facing a rainfall deficit severe enough to warrant crisis management. The Indian Meteorological Department’s data shows that 74% of India has so far recorded monsoon rainfall much below its normal levels.

Of the 36 rainfall divisions that the IMD divides the country in, 25 are reeling from rains much below what is considered normal for the region. As of yesterday 22 of the 25 have recorded rainfall dipping by more than 40% below the normal for the specific belts. 

Even by the lax Indian government definition, less than 20% rain means a meteorological drought (earlier it used to be triggered on official records by a 10% dip in rainfall).  

Yet the IMD figure of 31% country-wide area-weighted average figure for the entire monsoon season or a 15-16% deficiency in the last week’s rainfall country-wide area-weighted data is being deployed to suggest that the monsoon is not all that bad and its only getting better when one compares to the previous week.  

Let’s not get fooled by the averages. Farmers who depend upon monsoon to water their fields do not live by averages, they have to survive the extremes and the variation in the rains through the season. For a farmer, how the rain is spread over the monsoon period is critical. A dry sowing period followed by a huge downpour at a later stage of plant growth can be cataclysmic. For an analyst keeping sight of only the average rainfall it will only show a near ‘normal’ rosy picture of rain catching up finally. 

The pattern of rain that is most advantageous also differs from crop to crop, in fact, also from seed variety to seed variety. The availability of hardy short-duration varieties that shall survive low rainfall levels but give relatively lower productivity are a safer bet for a farmer in a bad monsoon. The farmer has a short time-gap and the increasing unpredictability of rainfall patterns to make these calls. This is where the government and the IMD reports are meant to come in handy. To have the right seed available and to have it in time is critical. To keep the fields ready to start sowing operations.

Northern Limit of Monsoon

 To understand the complexity of decision-making a farmer faces, one has to only read the regional Agromet advisories that the government puts out periodically. For any average city-dweller in India who only has to deal with the question of whether the city roads will be clogged with overflowing sewage or not, it can send the head spinning. 

 It is true, the monsoon is catching up in parts, the IMD raw-data shows. But, for a real picture of where it is and where it is not going to be enough, one only needs to survey the regional papers that reflect a more district-level variation of the hinterland.

 To reassert the point on getting lost in averages: normal monsoon in the evergreen ecological belts of Manipur, Mizoram, is 686.6 .4 mm for the season. For the drylands of Saurashtra, it is merely 213.1 mm for the same period. The ecology of the regions differs. Therefore, what the people grow and how they grow differs. It is silly, by any logic, mathematical interpretation or ecological sense, to club them all under one countrywide average number when reviewing how they shall fare through a year of climate and weather patterns. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/why-the-monsoon-numbers-hide-reality-114072100869_1.html

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MY SERIOUS CONCERN IS ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO FROM STOCKS THAT CAN RARELY OFFER LITTLE HEAD ROOM DUE TO WORRISOME EXTERNAL FACTORS AND FAILURE OF MONSOON FOR NOW...

THE MARKETS ARE SHIFTING GEARS TO SAFE ZONES....IN FUTURE THE INVESTMENTS WILL GO TO GOLD & SILVER, FOR NOW PLS WAIT FOR SOME MONTHS, TILL OCTOBER. I THINK THE YEARLY LOW CUTS WILL BE THE ORDER OF PLAY IN THE STOCK MARKETS. THE TELECOM, IT, INSURANCE AND JEWELRY STOCKS CAN SEE SOME SUPPORT BUT REST OF THE UNIVERSE WILL DRIFT LIKE LAND SLIDES. .....A FREE FALL AND MAY WILL COME WITH EXCUSES AND SOME COME WITH LONGTERM STORY.

FUTURE NIFTY---SHORT TERM CHALLENGES...

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….

The Indian markets have performed stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.

The fact is that, since January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason, nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY & COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place and the results will come in due course of time.

As far as the Stock Markets rise is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT, Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.

So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here 2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of the STOP-LOSSES.

THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….

THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE

THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE

THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE

THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 311-321, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE

THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1920-1950, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE

THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE

THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE

THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE

WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…

PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The NEXT Big POWER Play....SOLARRRRRRRRRR....!!!!

Solar Power: Cost of production dropped 60%; price to equal thermal power's in three years

By Shreya Jai, ET Bureau | 17 Mar, 2014, 04.23AM IST

Earlier this month, when Madhya Pradesh accepted the bid of Himgiri Energ y Ventures to supply solar power to the state grid at Rs 6.5 a unit, it was a figure to note even by the industry's standards of smashing records by the season. This contract award shaved off 13 per cent from the lowest price at which Indian industry was willing to supply solar power; over three years, the drop is a steep 61 per cent. 

More importantly, the MP tender brought .. .......

...............Some countries are there. Like Germany, which has 36,000 MW of solar capacity, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. An early adopter, Germany started seeing a spike in solar capacity from 2001. 

In India, the spike came only in 2012, since when its solar capacity has increased from 2.5 MW to 1,759 MW (See graphic). The Central government is looking to increase capacity through the National Solar Mission, which gives a certain set of incentives to companies and aims to put up 22,000 .. 

.................

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/32172002.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

NIFTY OUT PERFORMANCE..!!!

Boon for COPPER smelters

Rising processing fees a boon for copper smelters FIRST PUBLISHED: TUE, DEC 10 2013. 07 40 PM ISTProcessing fees are deducted from the LME price of copper before paying the miner, which means higher fees leave behind more profits for the processorCopper smelters have been in demand as ample supplies of copper concentrate are tilting the balance in their favour. This is a cyclical phenomenon that may change course, but till then the going is good for custom smelters. This is not a recent phenomenon as treatment and refining charges (Tc/Rc) had risen in 2013 over 2012, but the pace is set to accelerate in 2014.BHP Billiton Ltd has agreed to a Tc/Rc of $99 per tonne or 9.9 cents per pound to China’s large smelters for contracts for the first half of 2014, a 41% increase over the level set for the second half of 2013, according to aReuters news report.Custom smelters buy copper concentrate from mining companies to process it into finished metal.Processing fees are deducted from the London Metal Exchange price of copper before paying the miner, which means higher fees leave behind more profits for the processor.In India, Hindustan Copper Ltd runs an integrated copper operation, whileSesa Sterlite Ltd and Hindalco Industries Ltd run custom smelting operations. Hindustan Copper’s performance depends more on copper prices which are soft in the current quarter, compared with the preceding quarter. But Sesa’s and Hindalco’s copper business should benefit from rising trends in Tc/Rc.In the September quarter, for example, Sesa’s India copper business earned a Tc/Rc that was 31% higher compared with a year ago and 5.8% higher sequentially. Its copper business saw a 23% increase in segment profits. In Hindalco’s case, segment profit was up by 14% though its output was affected by a planned shutdown.Lower realizations from by-products are countering to—some extent—the benefits from higher processing fees. Still, a sustained increase in processing fees should reflect in the profitability of their copper operations. But this situation may not last forever.Most copper mining companies are terming the surplus situation as temporary and expect a combination of higher demand and decline in ore quality to result in a tighter market situation in 2014. If and when that happens, the tables can turn on the smelters as the balance would then tilt back in favour of the miners.http://www.livemint.com/Money/fqm6yDPl50Xj1FUQJ7wrxM/Rising-processing-fees-a-boon-for-copper-smelters.html