HAPPY DEWALI...

HAPPY DEEPAWALI TO READERS...

THE FESTIVAL OF LIGHTS SHALL BRING YOU PROSPERITY AND PEACE IN LIFE.

THE STOCKS WILL CHEER YOU NEVER BEFORE...

THE WAVE OF BULL RUN IS UNFOLDING.....

ENJOY PROSPERITY FROM STOCK MARKETS FROM MY RECOMMENDATIONS...

The unnatural….naturally?

There is no rule built in the market to go about. This is the only reason for the existence of the betting centre’s across the globe on economy and growth, though legally accepted by the Governance participated by the risk lovers be it highly knowledgeable or the highly paid market makers.

The market allows all payers with out distinction or discrimination. This is the reason why the retail flies flock around the burning flame. So the market behaiour is unnatural in its sense while reacting or responding to an event/news but the fact is that is the natural behavior.

The dependence on FII in flow and liquidity is the driving force for the run in the recent past. But the question is the driving force is BLIND?. If so, who are the other players living in the system with ignorance. There is single no bad news highlighted for the last 14-16 days across the globe despite the spiraling crude price, tensions in Libya no good economic scenario in Japan. In India, the heads at RBI started accepted the new norm while failed to control the inflation as “ high inflation in high growth economy is acceptable”.

Now coming to the numbers, the Nifty shorting was initiated after the March expiry and the Nifty has risen 100+ points from there. The retailer is accepting the rise as rise but it was inflated. I am not in the camp that the markets will crumble immediately but definitely touch the 5640 level when it falls below 5850 level. The range established is for the sake of selling but not for the further rise. The Banking sector will get its bone cracked to a level where the yearly lows are challenged very easily. The leaders like SBI shall not trade above 2865-69 level and the ICICI shall not trade above 1140 level.

Best weekly rally- a boon ??

The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.

The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15^th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.

In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.

Budget-2011-12- YES____But????....

The Pranab’s budget is same as earlier to focus on demand and propel growth. Te rural demand and in house economy building is good but the corporate houses are to be taken care as well.

The Soaps and Agarbatti companies share lots of fragrance of success.

The GST will lure all but the waiting is more painful to FMGC companies.

The cold chain and the chain action of profit growth is assured to those companies but the rise of copper may put some pressure.

The ready made branded garments put some 10% higher “pride cost” of buying but the quality was at yesterdays, level.

The low cost housing below 25 lakhs is the next mantra but the rise in the cement prices hampers the construction growth. The mall growth and SEZ growth get hampered and a severe blow to high rise illuminated luxury shopping. The IT and ITes are at foul cry with the introduction of MAT to SEZ. The big brother Reliance joins the group to provide chorus.

A severe blow to SESAGOA and others involved in miming of iron ore exports. The local sourcing of quality iron is at cheaper and easier than earlier.

The MAT was raised from 18-18.5% but the Corporate surcharge was reduced from 7.5% to 5%.

The good is the automobiles were spared from rise in excise duty.

A cool heath and rise in hospital bill and including Insurance tax is like filling the coffer with smile and sending the coffin.

The automobile is vrooming, banking sector in neutral, cement is cool, diamonds and jewelry lost the shining, IT is totally down, construction ok but infra is good with rising costs but power sector is good, steel is good, the FMCG is with fragrance,  phama needs a dose of pill but the corporate hospital and the AC hotels that serve a cool beer needs to pay the service tax. Those who want to fly shall pay more and their branded garment costs a lot. The oil and exploration is in demand with energy so is the power sector. Enjoy the budget but not the markets????????.

So sail with world markets and down with our weight unless or MF attract large capital INFLOW.