The worst effected challenge to cover my short of ICICI bank sold at 459 forced to cover at 460.85 level despite the market fall by more than 20 points, the loss was booked for Rs 569/-. I was terribly shaken due to this forced closure as the extra selling at higher level was restricted due to margin requirement despite of my 95000 margin. The IIFL restricted for selling of 500 shares in ICICI bank.
Later I took the opportunity to 250 ICICI sell at 472.85 levels but I advanced to 473.65 levels where I added 150 shares total cover for profit at 470.35, 470.85 and 481.85 levels. The profit was at the end was Rs 368/-. I relaxed for a bit but missed to buy DLF when Bhulakshmi came at that time. We all greeted her “Happy Birth Day”.
I made some money in SBI when I identified and shorted at 1298.65 levels and coved at 1288 level. I missed to sell ICICI but sold only 25 shares. Later no big deal was made due to fear of loosing the money made. I could stop the over trade with 960 gross profit.
I identified the Bull move in Relcap and the REL infra. The DLF crossed the 309 level I identified in the morning, wrote in my diary. I identified the up move at 283 levels I tried to buy at 291levels but confined to 5 shares instead of 250. I kept my study on and felt happy for being like that instead of taking a position.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
The fear of non practice….
The fear of un-acceptable level holding threatens me to wind of the position. The same thing happened when I bought 100 shares of SBI forced me to book the loss for Rs70/-, had I maintained the position then that could have yielded Rs5000/-.
In the morning the other system troubled with windows problem. This system net connectivity was not good. I missed the chance to buy and sell. When things settled, I sold 100 Rel infra but the ticker update failed forced to close. At the same time, Bhulakshmi and her mother-inlaw team came to see my father. This forced me to look for other domestic work.
Later I was bullish but doubtful of the run. I bought SBI and sold for a loss. I bought RIL for high cut but a test buy of 1 share. I was waiting for the fall made some 250 shares of ICICI selling at 451.75, covered for a rupee.
In the fag end, a typical situation happened. I wanted to buy 25 shares of ICICI at 467.75 the price even came down to 465.35 so I thought I might have received that and sold at higher level. Later when I checked the position short of 25 shares forced me to buy when the stock falling after touching 474.8, covered at 470.8. My earlier order got no number as it was not registered with the IIFL. Later another order was placed after some time then the system cancelled my earlier ICICI order. That is how I waited, wasted the day with no gains.
In the morning the other system troubled with windows problem. This system net connectivity was not good. I missed the chance to buy and sell. When things settled, I sold 100 Rel infra but the ticker update failed forced to close. At the same time, Bhulakshmi and her mother-inlaw team came to see my father. This forced me to look for other domestic work.
Later I was bullish but doubtful of the run. I bought SBI and sold for a loss. I bought RIL for high cut but a test buy of 1 share. I was waiting for the fall made some 250 shares of ICICI selling at 451.75, covered for a rupee.
In the fag end, a typical situation happened. I wanted to buy 25 shares of ICICI at 467.75 the price even came down to 465.35 so I thought I might have received that and sold at higher level. Later when I checked the position short of 25 shares forced me to buy when the stock falling after touching 474.8, covered at 470.8. My earlier order got no number as it was not registered with the IIFL. Later another order was placed after some time then the system cancelled my earlier ICICI order. That is how I waited, wasted the day with no gains.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The Rs20,000/- dream….
I have made a decent deal but the order punched took few seconds time to absorbed made me to wait. The 250 share sell at 532.5 would have made 3000 rupees easily as the steep fall from that level to 510.
I identified the selling in the RelInfra and Relcap made me to track but yielded no good result. Both the stocks fell by 15%, I took a call when Rel cap was at 526.3 and even sold 100 shares at 517.40 but covered at 516 fell to 460 level. I even sold another 30 shares at 512.3 but covered at 511. The Rel infra fell from 600.5 to 535 level but I could not sell despite my efforts to sell 100 shares at 593.3.
The single most mistakes I did was tried to sell reliance 100 shares at 1356.3 level but failed. I again tried to sell Rel cap RelInfra but failed to capitalize. I sold 250 Rel Infra at 593.3 covered at 591.8 level. Had this selling covered at the lower level would have yielded Rs 20,000/-.
The experience shows from the deals is that the trading I do confined to few seconds that to tacking advantage of the volatility. The habit of covering early and waiting for another opportunity is good but this won’t yield results. The best thing is to practice the position holding with out counting the rupee to the volatility that normally happens. The UJWAL- trading is the best solution to this problem. I will practice this trading with Target Oriented Trading (TOT).
I identified the selling in the RelInfra and Relcap made me to track but yielded no good result. Both the stocks fell by 15%, I took a call when Rel cap was at 526.3 and even sold 100 shares at 517.40 but covered at 516 fell to 460 level. I even sold another 30 shares at 512.3 but covered at 511. The Rel infra fell from 600.5 to 535 level but I could not sell despite my efforts to sell 100 shares at 593.3.
The single most mistakes I did was tried to sell reliance 100 shares at 1356.3 level but failed. I again tried to sell Rel cap RelInfra but failed to capitalize. I sold 250 Rel Infra at 593.3 covered at 591.8 level. Had this selling covered at the lower level would have yielded Rs 20,000/-.
The experience shows from the deals is that the trading I do confined to few seconds that to tacking advantage of the volatility. The habit of covering early and waiting for another opportunity is good but this won’t yield results. The best thing is to practice the position holding with out counting the rupee to the volatility that normally happens. The UJWAL- trading is the best solution to this problem. I will practice this trading with Target Oriented Trading (TOT).
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The waiting failed….
The waiting from the beginning to understand the market turned sour as I traded in Tata steel which I forgotten to trade for long time. The waiting was so desperate as the day is going to be closed but the earnings were negligible. As I wrote in the morning I was forced to trade because I need to prove that I can trade in any condition. The thinking of making money forced me to jump in to trade that was proved wrong.
I normally trade with great precision. The positive side of the trade is that I sold 250 Tata Steel and bought a lot of 382 shares of the Future at the same price. The feel is that the market will eventually fall. This idea is right for the scrip but the market was bullish due to RIL, Bharti and SBI pulled the indices up.
Had I stopped there to sell more would have yielded good results as the scrip likely to benefit me a lot but the markets were so bullish. The further selling at higher level with 500 more could have yielded but proved wrong when I failed to cover at 223.85 level, a forced selling at 225.30 added 1000 rupees extra loss. The total loss amounted to Rs1750/-.
The lesson is never jump to trade. The conviction can be right but the direction shall match with the decision.
I normally trade with great precision. The positive side of the trade is that I sold 250 Tata Steel and bought a lot of 382 shares of the Future at the same price. The feel is that the market will eventually fall. This idea is right for the scrip but the market was bullish due to RIL, Bharti and SBI pulled the indices up.
Had I stopped there to sell more would have yielded good results as the scrip likely to benefit me a lot but the markets were so bullish. The further selling at higher level with 500 more could have yielded but proved wrong when I failed to cover at 223.85 level, a forced selling at 225.30 added 1000 rupees extra loss. The total loss amounted to Rs1750/-.
The lesson is never jump to trade. The conviction can be right but the direction shall match with the decision.
THE BEAUTY...
I THOUGHT YESTOR DAY HDFC WILL LOW CUT MISSED DUE TO THE FEAR OF BULLISH NESS IN THE MARKET.
THE REL INFRA WAS IDENTIFIED WHEN IT WAS AT 666-68 LEVEL, LOW WAS AT 655 MISSED THE LOW CUT. DUE TO PRESSURE FROM HEMA I MISED THE FALL OF ICICI BANK LATER I LOST THE MOOD AS SHE SHOUTED ON THE MODES OPERANDI.
I AGAIN LOST THE OPPORTUNITY TO SELL REL INFRA AGAIN AT 666-68 LEVEL IT TOUCHED 642 LEVEL.
I AM NOT ABLE TO UNDERSTAND HOW I CAN MAKE USE OF MY KNOWELDGE AND COVERT IT IN TO PROFITS. I HAVE TO MAKE A CONCRETE PLAN TO TURN OFF THE BAD FEELINGS AND START LIVING WITH JOY BEING IN THE MARKET.
THE REL INFRA WAS IDENTIFIED WHEN IT WAS AT 666-68 LEVEL, LOW WAS AT 655 MISSED THE LOW CUT. DUE TO PRESSURE FROM HEMA I MISED THE FALL OF ICICI BANK LATER I LOST THE MOOD AS SHE SHOUTED ON THE MODES OPERANDI.
I AGAIN LOST THE OPPORTUNITY TO SELL REL INFRA AGAIN AT 666-68 LEVEL IT TOUCHED 642 LEVEL.
I AM NOT ABLE TO UNDERSTAND HOW I CAN MAKE USE OF MY KNOWELDGE AND COVERT IT IN TO PROFITS. I HAVE TO MAKE A CONCRETE PLAN TO TURN OFF THE BAD FEELINGS AND START LIVING WITH JOY BEING IN THE MARKET.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The morning move…
The morning deal in ICICI bank made me to go for a protectionist trader. The first buy of 250 shares at 401.35 was closed in 43 seconds, sold at 403.70
The fear of loss pulled me back as I made no good money these days inspite of my change in my trading style forced to take a back seat. I was very bullish on Relcap but failed to notice the move as I was already engaged in ICICI. The scrip was available at 482 ralled up to 493 then to 497. The markets fell by 20 points it came to 490 level I bought at 490.25 then again fell to 488.65. I bought another 25 but sold for a 52 rupees profit. Later surprisingly 5 share was short due to my double sell in the same counter at 487.65 level. I could notice this only when it is trading at 495 level. I started scolding my fate, true some extent again shorted 5 to make up the loss but the scrip rallied to 499 from 495 level. I started scolding for my foolish attempt to average in bullish scrip by selling. Some how I accepted a loss of 20 rupees apart from losing my 52 gain. This is a classic example of 52 from 50 shares wiped out with 5 shares of wrong deal.
Later I identified the Rel infra but due to my fear of loss I was very selective in my selling at 607-11 level. It fell up to 580 level.
I made a mistake by selecting LT at 776 which I thought it will low cut
at 768 level but the choice was wrong went to 784 level and the Nifty rallied from 2910 to 2940 level. Due to this I was again scolding my self for being in position against the trend.
I told to Hema that the Relcap is likely to touch 480-83 level when the ruling was at 495. The markets cracked down Rel infra fell from 606 to 596 level, I opted to sell LT, sold 25 shares but of no use as it was strong at that given instance. I sold BHEL 10 shares and covered but the LT was there where I sold so I covered but ultimately it came to a low of 759, I sold at 775.10 covered at 774.65.
The story of ICICI bank was very interesting, I sold 100 at 402.8 covered 95 at 402.35 I t went back to 403.5 level. I covered, again sold at 404.4 covered at 404.1 but finally when the fall resumed I became a spectator as my chase yielded no result but cancellation my the orders. It touched a low of 393.10. I bought 25 at 394.7 sold at 395.35 I came back to 409.0
Due to my contracted punching volume and speed limited my gross at 870 level but I was very happy to close with positive note.
The fear of loss pulled me back as I made no good money these days inspite of my change in my trading style forced to take a back seat. I was very bullish on Relcap but failed to notice the move as I was already engaged in ICICI. The scrip was available at 482 ralled up to 493 then to 497. The markets fell by 20 points it came to 490 level I bought at 490.25 then again fell to 488.65. I bought another 25 but sold for a 52 rupees profit. Later surprisingly 5 share was short due to my double sell in the same counter at 487.65 level. I could notice this only when it is trading at 495 level. I started scolding my fate, true some extent again shorted 5 to make up the loss but the scrip rallied to 499 from 495 level. I started scolding for my foolish attempt to average in bullish scrip by selling. Some how I accepted a loss of 20 rupees apart from losing my 52 gain. This is a classic example of 52 from 50 shares wiped out with 5 shares of wrong deal.
Later I identified the Rel infra but due to my fear of loss I was very selective in my selling at 607-11 level. It fell up to 580 level.
I made a mistake by selecting LT at 776 which I thought it will low cut
at 768 level but the choice was wrong went to 784 level and the Nifty rallied from 2910 to 2940 level. Due to this I was again scolding my self for being in position against the trend.
I told to Hema that the Relcap is likely to touch 480-83 level when the ruling was at 495. The markets cracked down Rel infra fell from 606 to 596 level, I opted to sell LT, sold 25 shares but of no use as it was strong at that given instance. I sold BHEL 10 shares and covered but the LT was there where I sold so I covered but ultimately it came to a low of 759, I sold at 775.10 covered at 774.65.
The story of ICICI bank was very interesting, I sold 100 at 402.8 covered 95 at 402.35 I t went back to 403.5 level. I covered, again sold at 404.4 covered at 404.1 but finally when the fall resumed I became a spectator as my chase yielded no result but cancellation my the orders. It touched a low of 393.10. I bought 25 at 394.7 sold at 395.35 I came back to 409.0
Due to my contracted punching volume and speed limited my gross at 870 level but I was very happy to close with positive note.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
A three day effect….
I have decided to go volume business inspite of brokerage losses for two days consequently. On Friday I continued to go and made an Rs 2200+ at gross level. The surprising incidents happen in which I normally consider as luck that the Share khan site went trouble. The whole day on Monday went with out volume. Tuesday is holiday due to Bakr EID. Today the BSNL server was down. On Monday the site got trouble at 11-11.30 am and today the net was down at 12-12.30pm.
To day I wanted to go long but the morning selling pressure in ICICI bank and weakness in SBI forced me to look for low cuts. In the process I focused on Relcap, sold 100 but bought 500 to hedge and take the temporary up moment. This went wrong and I was up set as I wanted to hedge the 100 against with 250 but the two orders placed as the first one was missed in the first instance. The sick feeling indulged me to go short in REL for a rupee which I wanted to test the waters but failed to come out of the wrong direction just to make money out of the deal and the scrip that to in wrong direction made me to loose the gains I made in the morning.
I wrote in the blog that the markets will cross the 2935 level but failed to take advantage. The luck also spoiled the sport. The REL was chosen to buy at 577 level, placed an order for 250 quantity but the tab touch used in 5paisa is different and ShareKhan puts the double tab to cancel. I tried, pressed enter as if I am buying but did no use as the system under stood I wanted to cancel my place order. Again the same situation came when I wanted to buy 500 icici at 386.5 level. REL went upto 607 and ICICI went to 405. I don hold up to that last point but the 1000/- was missed for lack of practice or luck.
To day I wanted to go long but the morning selling pressure in ICICI bank and weakness in SBI forced me to look for low cuts. In the process I focused on Relcap, sold 100 but bought 500 to hedge and take the temporary up moment. This went wrong and I was up set as I wanted to hedge the 100 against with 250 but the two orders placed as the first one was missed in the first instance. The sick feeling indulged me to go short in REL for a rupee which I wanted to test the waters but failed to come out of the wrong direction just to make money out of the deal and the scrip that to in wrong direction made me to loose the gains I made in the morning.
I wrote in the blog that the markets will cross the 2935 level but failed to take advantage. The luck also spoiled the sport. The REL was chosen to buy at 577 level, placed an order for 250 quantity but the tab touch used in 5paisa is different and ShareKhan puts the double tab to cancel. I tried, pressed enter as if I am buying but did no use as the system under stood I wanted to cancel my place order. Again the same situation came when I wanted to buy 500 icici at 386.5 level. REL went upto 607 and ICICI went to 405. I don hold up to that last point but the 1000/- was missed for lack of practice or luck.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
UJWAL TRADING.....
- U=ULTIMATE
- J=JOURNEY
- W=WHERE
- A=ALL
- L=LEAD
UJWAL TRADIND IS NOTHING BUT "ULTIMATE JOURNEY WERE ALL LEAD"- JUST LIVE THE TREND. FOLLOW THE TREND AND MAKE OTHERS FOLLOW YOU.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
ABC RUN & TRADING
TRADING IS ALL ABOUT ABC-RUN
- A = ADD POSITION AND RUN THE POSITION
- B = BUILD POSITION AND RUN THE POSITION
- C = CLOSE POSITION AND RUN THE MARKET
B.NAGESWARA RAO
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
THE REFLECTIONS
The history is to visit the past to plan for the future with the presents scenarios. The stock markets provide ample of evidence to correlate with the past experiences. The end of the Bull market can be gauged by the exuberant rise in the small cap stocks that are known to no body. The reverse is the case for the end of the bear market when the well known most trusted firm’s bankrupt and the HNIs and the wise will grab the opportunity to invest for long term. Now the time is……
Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
It can’t be stretched further….
…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007
The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run. Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls. The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
It can’t be stretched further….
…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007
The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run. Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls. The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Slaves of Markets….
It is very difficult to accept the TRUTH, proved beyond doubt in the annals of history. Even by chance we get the thought but the pain & pressure it develops will forces us to stop the introspection. We sincerely try to escape from the fact that what is happening is against the anticipated positional move especially in stock markets, we tend to carry the wrong move with our wishful thinking. Later at a stage, deep down in red try to pray the Almighty to come and rescue forgetting the given suggestions from our inner consciousness. The problem with the novice is that they argue how it cannot go against the decision he/she had taken and claims that the markets will turn to their favour in no time from that moment. The very nature of the false wisdom propels to commit more positions to prove to the world that how accurate the thinking was. The comfortable level of closing the deal will become as compulsory, dumps us in deep depression. Then we start accusing friends, advisors, brokers, media and even the markets for our loss of money, some times accuse for the state of life. We never try to immediately accept the fact that we got many chances to get out of the bad deal but it is our rejection to accept the loss and the unmindful false hope that dominated the necessary right decision. The strength of the markets can be felt by the touch of the screen with the eye balls rolling over the prices. This can save the participant in case of emergency but cannot help even to the so called expert to make a killing in the markets. The very nature of "the losers in the market" as participants carries more or less the same kind of attitude, stubbornness and lofty claims as the masters of markets. The market participants try to win over the other person known or unknown, challenges the other by taking a stand on one side. In case of a failed/wrong decision, ignores to acknowledge insted tries to find reason that made the loss. The successful persons in the market accept the very fact that they have limited knowledge, money and the required information at that particular point and close the deal. The scholarly regarded personalities, the immediate seniors and the veterans of stock market traders advice the new blood not to trade, not to trade on high volumes and never believe the targets. In spite of all these good advices the freshers make their attempt to prove that they can win the market with their tools available at their disposal. Some people acquire certain (tips) methods of trading and starts counting on the chance. Some gain knowledge on technical analysis which perfectly collaborates with the HISTORY of prices. In a nut shell all these help to understand the happenings that happened in the markets, reflected in the stock prices. The dynamic nature of the price movement places all the experts keep guessing with their fingers crossed. This situation neither new to the markets nor will end by tomorrow. The solid money generated from the markets by the investment gurus “Only by Long term Investment”. None has ever suggested to trade, even most suggested not to trade the long term invested position even in a falling market. After a prolonged tearful journey with the markets will realize the fact that one has to walk in the foot prints of the market but never the movements of the market be controlled. One more fact is that every claim that he/she could make as master the market and starts preaching to others on the “Dos and the Don’ts” like right now what I am doing is mere exhaustion, like catching a mirage. The everlasting perennial problems of ignorant, un-mindful new blood goats entering the lions den for shelter, entering the stream of stock market cannot be stopped but some light can be thrown to reveal the real situation and the necessary precautions that can protect from disastrous situations where these participants may position themselves. In-spite of many series of happenings of losing money and time, the other kinds of frustration as experience, we like to dislodge the whole idea of self analysis by our reasoning that we are "Slaves of Markets". It is easier said than done, buy the suggestions but make your own study, take your decision. Please provide your ideas and analysis in the “Comments”. I request the readers to place their ideas for others sake and encourage the others to learn-“the right information dissemination at the right time” For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/ The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS. Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The next week: Slavery to Sovereignty
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The next week: Slavery to Sovereignty
Saturday, August 9, 2008
The love for 08-08-08
The 29 th Olympic games started on 08-08-08 with lots of fan fare. The love for the special date on a special occassion is a special thing to metion at this point in time as SPECIAL.
The real contribution will be guaged only when i maitain regularly from this Special event 15495/7825.
The real contribution will be guaged only when i maitain regularly from this Special event 15495/7825.
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